Vaccine studies results: No evidence of reduced mortality or reduced hospitalization. No evidence regarding safety or side effects. The 95% "effective" is intentional misinformation. Feel safer?

Posted by freedomforall 1 month, 4 weeks ago to Business
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"Pfizer recently announced that its covid vaccine was more than 90 percent “effective” at preventing covid-19. Shortly after this announcement, Moderna announced that its covid vaccine was 94.5 percent “effective” at preventing covid-19. Unlike the flu vaccine, which is one shot, both covid vaccines require two shots given three to four weeks apart. Hidden toward the end of both announcements, were the definitions of “effective.”

Both trials have a treatment group that received the vaccine and a control group that did not. All the trial subjects were covid negative prior to the start of the trial. The analysis for both trials was performed when a target number of “cases” were reached. “Cases” were defined by positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. There was no information about the cycle number for the PCR tests. There was no information about whether the “cases” had symptoms or not. There was no information about hospitalizations or deaths. The Pfizer study had 43,538 participants and was analyzed after 164 cases. So, roughly 150 out 21,750 participants (less than 0.7 percent) became PCR positive in the control group and about one-tenth that number in the vaccine group became PCR positive. The Moderna trial had 30,000 participants. There were 95 “cases” in the 15,000 control participants (about 0.6 percent) and 5 “cases” in the 15,000 vaccine participants (about one-twentieth of 0.6 percent). The “efficacy” figures quoted in these announcements are odds ratios.

There is no evidence, yet, that the vaccine prevented any hospitalizations or any deaths. The Moderna announcement claimed that eleven cases in the control group were “severe” disease, but “severe” was not defined. If there were any hospitalizations or deaths in either group, the public has not been told. When the risks of an event are small, odds ratios can be misleading about absolute risk. A more meaningful measure of efficacy would be the number to vaccinate to prevent one hospitalization or one death. Those numbers are not available. An estimate of the number to treat from the Moderna trial to prevent a single “case” would be fifteen thousand vaccinations to prevent ninety “cases” or 167 vaccinations per “case” prevented which does not sound nearly as good as 94.5 percent effective. The publicists working for pharmaceutical companies are very smart people. If there were a reduction in mortality from these vaccines, that information would be in the first paragraph of the announcement.

There is no information about how long any protective benefit from the vaccine would persist. Antibody response following covid-19 appears to be short lived. Based on what we know, the covid vaccine may require two shots every three to six months to be protective. The more shots required, the greater the risk of side effects from sensitization to the vaccine.

There is no information about safety. None. Government agencies like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) appear to have two completely different standards for attributing deaths to covid-19 and attributing side effects to covid vaccines. If these vaccines are approved, as they likely will be, the first group to be vaccinated will be the beta testers. I am employed by a university-based medical center that is a referral center for the West Texas region. My colleagues include resident physicians and faculty physicians who work with covid patients on a daily basis. I have asked a number of my colleagues whether they will be first in line for the new vaccine. I have yet to hear any of my colleagues respond affirmatively. The reasons for hesitancy are that the uncertainties about safety exceed what they perceive to be a small benefit. In other words, my colleagues would prefer to take their chances with covid rather than beta test the vaccine. Many of my colleagues want to see the safety data after a year of use before getting vaccinated; these colleagues are concerned about possible autoimmune side effects that may not appear for months after vaccination.

These announcements by Pfizer and Moderna are encouraging. I certainly hope that these vaccines protect people from the harm of covid-19. I certainly hope that these vaccines are safe. If both of these conditions are true, nobody will need to be coerced into taking the vaccine. However, you should pay even more attention about what is left out of an announcement than about what is stated. The pharmaceutical companies are more than happy for patients to misunderstand what is meant by efficacy. Caveat emptor (buyer beware)!

Author:
Gilbert Berdine, MD

Gilbert Berdine is an associate professor of medicine at Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center and an affiliate of the Free Market Institute at Texas Tech University."
SOURCE URL: https://mises.org/wire/what-covid-vaccine-hype-fails-mention


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  • Posted by KevinSchwinkendorf 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I may not be a medial expert, but I do have a PhD in nuclear engineering, so I'm not ignorant about science. With just a little internet research, I've learned that the "common cold" is actually caused by classes of virus, half of which are called "rhinoviruses" and another 15% are called "coronaviruses." Covid19 is just another coronavirus, with symptoms similar to the common cold (but whereas most colds give you sneezing, runny nose, caugh, etc., covid19 seems to attack the lungs more - hence the need for ventilators in severe cases). I'm 61 years old now, and for most of my life, I've heard that there "is no cure for the common cold" (much less a vaccine). Since the "deadly" covid19 virus seems to have a vaccine now (due to our much-more-advanced medical science in the 21st century), does that mean we will also have a vaccine for the common cold? Or is the common cold so mild (even though it too has a non-zero mortality rate - about 0.1%) that the money spent on R&D is not worth it? Considering that the mortality rate of covid19 in the general population is only 0.2-0.3% it seems to me that the same argument would hold. Do we do "lockdowns" for the common cold? Of COURSE NOT! We do NOT shut down civilization for a freaking cold!!! It is interesting that the mortality rate for covid19 (which we now know is a function of age) varies as much as it does, but for people less than 30, the mortality rate is less than the common cold (but for people over 70 it increases rapidly to over 5%). The most rational approach for dealing with this virus has been proposed by Dr. JAY BHATTACHARYA and others in the October 2020 issue of Imprimis (publication of Hillsdale College). The bottom line is to protect the most vulnerable (people over 70) and open up the economy and GET ON WITH LIFE! Their declaration can be viewed at: https://gbdeclaration.org/
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  • Posted by Lucky 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    It is amusing -maybe not the right word- to compare this rush job and claimed 90% effectiveness with the harsh criticism given to the papers and trials dealing with the use of HCQ in curing the CCP19 virus in early stage patients.
    Well yes, there was mainly anecdotal evidence, but a lot of it, then consider- what if it does not work? What are the alternatives? What is the downside?
    65 years of experience ignored.

    With these vaccines, it is legit to ask if they are safe given how much we trust their proponents. Re the 90 percent effectiveness, all the usual cautions apply, compared with what, age cohort, side effects, how many people tested, for how long?

    Well I am a believer in vaccination, but there are conditions, there are long standing rules. But for this one and some others, the rules are brushed aside and name calling is ramped up.
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  • Posted by $ kddr22 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    As a pediatrician and normally vaccine advocate I have no intention of taking this vaccine esp the RNA vaccines from pfizer and moderna . Will consider the J J one once I see the data. Merck is making a traditional vaccine from protein derivatives but will not be available till summer.
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  • Posted by $ Abaco 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I read the criteria that these vaccines are being held to and it's a damned joke. I'll let everybody body else get it for at least a year. Already messed up somebody's spine and almost killed three participants in Seattle. Good luck with that, America.
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    • Posted by $ gharkness 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      Makes me really hate being in the “vulnerable” population (due to age). I don’t want them “protecting” me directly into my grave.
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      • Posted by $ Abaco 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        That's what they did to my dad. Dead this August. His immune system had been ravaged by excessive vaccination. I remember warning him about his habits. He was so full of vaccine adjuvant that his antibodies started attacking his muscle neurons. They had to retard his immune system or he'd die via paralysis. When he got COVID he was a sitting duck. No chance. I finally gave the go ahead to pull the plug and he was totally dead within 15 minutes. Most vaccinated person I've ever known.
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  • Posted by DrZarkov99 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I've been viewing the whole COVID episode with a mix of bemusement and sadness. Bemusement because at over 75 I don't seem to catch transmissible diseases, or if I do, my body usually rids itself of the invader within 48 hours. I also don't have adverse reactions to vaccinations. When I was given the shot for bubonic plague the doctor had reserved a hospital bed for me to handle the aftereffects. He was astounded when the only reaction I showed was a small black bruise, which indicated my body did respond properly. I'm willing to be a "lab rat" to encourage other vulnerable persons that the vaccine itself is survivable.

    I'm sad to see how easily the current American population can be so easily led into a state of panic and fear. Where are the historic spines that made Americans resilient to the ravages of war, economic stress, and disease? There was no vaccine for polio when I was a child, but we didn't lock down the country out of fear over it.

    Both the CDC and WHO now agree that once the infection rate is beyond 1-2% in a population, lockdowns and masking becomes very ineffective, and they recommend against it. Strange that those who keep harping on "follow the science" now want us to ignore the scientists and obey the bureaucrats, cringing in fear and isolation.
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    • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      Strange, only if we expect actions from those "public servants" and media to place overall effects on the society at a priority above their own biased goals of power and wealth.
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      • Posted by DrZarkov99 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        What I find amazing is that these same bureaucrats commit flagrant, unashamed acts of hypocrisy, often contradicting themselves within days, and yet so long as the complicit media cover for them, a large segment of the public seems willing, and sometimes outright eager to give them a pass. When we not only tolerate, but reward lies, narcissism, hypocrisy, and corruption, we should blame ourselves for not doing more.
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    • Posted by $ pixelate 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      I agree -- the palpable quantity of fear being illustrated is disappointing. In particular, when I see hale and hearty hikers above 10,000' elevation and they don the muzzle while a 10+ mph breeze is evident. My long distance running friends and associates -- donning the muzzle during endurance events and calling it the new normal. No thank you. Last night, I attended a Thanksgiving dinner with long time friends ... Covid had its run through their home only three weeks earlier... they asked if I was concerned (being at age 55) -- no concerns a all... I likely already had C19 or will get it from them or someone else .. but based on my lifestyle, it will run its course and be done. The level of weakness of individuals in this country is alarming to me. I think that the population has been systematically reduced to a weak and frightened collective that is easily herded. There is the perception that being a member of the herd offers safety in numbers. I will continue to take in multiple perspectives, but in the end, think for myself.
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      • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        I'd hope that a sizable percentage of the 70 million+ who voted for Trump in 2020 won't be herded into dangerous, untested vaccines.
        If he isn't legally returned to the office in short order my part of the herd will not comply with anything the new administration orders unless I would have done so under a Trump administration, and a there will likely be number of unapproved actions.
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        • Posted by DrZarkov99 1 month, 3 weeks ago
          There's a bit of irony in your statement. The vaccines being pushed are a product of Trump's Warp Speed effort to streamline the vaccine approval process, and I applaud that aggressive effort. I would be far less comfortable with a vaccine created under a Biden administration. I could easily see Biden endorsing the Chinese vaccine for American use, when every country that has been offered the Chinese version has turned it down.
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          • Posted by $ Dobrien 1 month, 3 weeks ago
            Wishing doesn’t make it so. Just like a flu shot this vaccine will not stop Covid 20 or 21 or 22. It was a time frame ploy. A control ploy. As well as a money grab. The sooner a vaccine is available the sooner our tyrannical stupid orders can be relaxed was the message. This hoax (not the virus) but the response to it shows how close we are to the end of society as we knew it. Give me liberty or give me death,
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            • Posted by DrZarkov99 1 month, 3 weeks ago
              One of the characteristics of the corona virus family is frequent mutation, which is why flu shots are often ineffective because it takes so long to get a vaccine approved. By the time a vaccine has the FDA blessing, the window for negating the latest mutated version has passed. What Warp Speed accomplished was to reduce the time for approval to avoid missing the window of effectiveness. Truthfully, we won't know if we did in fact catch the window until statistics tell us we've achieved herd immunity thanks to vaccination and the natural spread of the virus.

              What's telling is that both the CDC and WHO are telling us that the time for lockdowns is long past, but the same bureaucrats who scream at us to follow the science are now telling us to ignore it and obey. It's all about control, and the frightening level of effectiveness is the number of sheeple who call any non mask wearer a murderer. We are seeing the resurrection of the witch trials of the 15th century, where people reacting out of fear were more than willing to accuse neighbors of being evildoers who were inflicting plague on the innocent.
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          • Posted by Lucky 1 month, 3 weeks ago
            I agree with all of that Dr Z.

            No one would disagree with streamlining the approval process.
            My reservation concerns short cuts with safety and effectiveness - these depend on biological processes occurring over time, these are not subject to what administrators do with approvals.
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            • Posted by DrZarkov99 1 month, 3 weeks ago
              There's a flaw in the way the FDA categorizes drug/vaccine side effects. Any ailment, condition, or disorder that happens to a subject during the trials must be categorized as a side effect. I have seen nonsense like broken bones called side effects from oral medications; both constipation and diarrhea listed; pneumonia for digestive medicines. There seems to be no logical attempt to determine if a disorder has the remotest possibility of being a side effect. The body reacts to injections relatively quickly, and prolonging the time to see if there are side effects only gives license to more ridiculous claims.
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  • Posted by Bill54 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    Even after reading Dr. Berdine's letter here and the comments that followed, I remain unsettled about this pandemic. It is real, yes. But there is something wrong here too.

    The world is faced with pandemics almost constantly. We survive. The earth abides. We go on. To have witnessed the greatest manufactured recession in history is astounding. It leaves us with the feeling we are falling and our senses are in our throats. We haven't awoken from this nightmare yet. Without a Trump presidency in January there will be a flatline for the heartbeat of our economy and our constitutional freedoms. Big pharma and big government have won this round.
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    • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      To have witnessed the greatest manufactured election theft in history is astounding, too.
      The Deep State thinks we can be made into subservient workers. We must teach them just how wrong they are.
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      • Posted by $ Dobrien 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        We are at war. We have been for 4 years. I have called it the “Uncivil War. Special forces are being put into place. Tough days ahead but we will win.
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  • Posted by mia767ca 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    also...this will be the first vaccine to alter your DNA...the potential for a disaster in the future...once altered, you cannot go back...
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    • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      https://www.rt.com/uk/507943-astrazen...
      The doctor cautioned against jumping to conclusions as he said that any trial results published by pretty-much any vaccine developer nowadays should be considered “a very early stage efficacy testing rather than a major trial.”

      “So, all the [tests] are at very, very early stages. It is too early for other companies to be jumping up and saying: ‘yours does not work and ours does’.”

      In fact, other vaccines developed by AstraZeneca’s rivals across the pond – Moderna and Pfizer, which also collaborates with Germany’s BioNTech – might pose a much greater risk than just a possibility of a vaccine being not as effective, Kendrick warned.

      Both American vaccines use messenger RNA (mRNA) to combat the virus. That is an advanced genetic therapy that uses the virus’ own genetic material against it. Kendrick, however, warns that the technology is really new and untested, meaning no one really knows how it could affect human health, since it literally hijacks the cellular reproduction mechanism.

      “When you are dealing with something that has never been tried before, the efficacy might not be so important but safety issues should absolutely be looked at very carefully,” he said. “We really do not know what these things might end up doing after a prolonged period of time.”
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      • Posted by Lucky 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        Re the AstraZeneca vaccine- it does have some good points among the top three, easier to store and carry around, and much cheaper.
        Then I read, one of the test groups were given half the stated dose, that test group had slightly better results, and they were all under age 50 (from memory).

        I think I will sit out for this dance.
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  • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    My top question is:
    How much benefit is there for the people most at risk from COVID and how much additional risk is added for those people from the vaccine itself?
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  • Posted by $ Abaco 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I will repeat myself again. Under Biden the states will mandate this for school children. Biden three nights ago, "We have to get the schools open!" Yeah...I'm on to you Joe. This was right after he met with the governors who, trust me, are on the pharma payroll.

    Get ready, my friends. This is going to be a wild ride!
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  • Posted by $ BobCat 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    You asked, “Feel Safer”? I feel just as safe ‘cause I never had any intention of subjecting myself to their ‘experiment’. Thanks for the link, I know of others who need to read it.
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  • Posted by $ Stormi 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I studied biology in college, and I have been on the websites of mfgs. They seem to leave out a lot of information. Try to find out who would be better not aking, is it cultured in eggs, does it contain live virus, how long exactly is immunity, etc.? Even CVS has a message on their pone sys. to say they have no answers on vaccine, but will be administering it. Gates says it is will need a follow up in a year. One site said you will likely get sick, like milk Covid 19 for about 3 days, then immunity for a few months. I say, hold it up, let Biden be in harge and talke all the blame, becaue, I see bad things possible here. A doctor in Italy is afvising his countrymen to avoid the vaccine, he says it will set off something worse
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  • Posted by 25n56il4 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I think we all know that no vaccine will prevent you from getting anything but supposedly it might cause you to have a lighter illness. So, I am not going to jump into this without a lot of study.
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  • Posted by $ Abaco 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    I've made some good money on this whole joke. Not sure how that sits with Objectivism...
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    • Posted by tdechaine 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      How what sits?
      Objectivism only suggests one look at all the evidence and assess the risk/reward rationally.
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      • Posted by $ Abaco 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        Then, I'm good - based on your "only". I'd rather invest in an aircraft company or food producer than an industry that pays the government a lot of money to let them screw up the unknowing populous. That's the ethics problem for me. I "hope" these COVID vaccines are good. But...poop in one hand and hope in the other and see which one fills quicker...
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        • Posted by tdechaine 1 month, 3 weeks ago
          I agree with your first comment.
          But the Govt. has subsidized the Co.s to produce the vaccines at an affordable price. It's the Co.s reputation that's on the line, not Govt.
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  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    From what I read, all the vaccine companies agreed to only mitigate cold symptoms...now that sounds benign enough but still there are side effects with the monkey piss and human baby parts they use in these things.

    Stick with the vitamin/supplements/ therapeutics...they work and won't kill you.
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  • Posted by lrshultis 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    Why would the M.D. even expect to have sampling data for hospitalizations and deaths from a study for rate of antibody production in a rather small sample space?
    The absolute rates are given for an individual, say (0.7% , 0.07%) and also the calculated relative rate (0.007 - 0.0007) / 0.007 = 0.0063 / 0.007 = 0.90 = 90%.
    An example for whether to take a treatment or not is my choice of taking medication for heart problems or not. In my case there is a 3% chance of having another heart attack without the medication and a 1.5 % chance with the medication. That does not seem like a lot for an individual but for the population of former heart attack victims that is a 50% reduction which depending upon number involved could even concern some of those on this forum to advocate the use of medications or even become concerned about using a rather rapidly developed vaccine.
    We maybe could stand a few more deaths to get to the 675,000 US deaths and about 50 million world wide from the Spanish flu.
    It's time to take politics out of public health. That is very difficult when most citizens remain ignorant of even general science and mathematics and cannot understand reality in but little hints here and there and just continue to party on!
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    • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      "Why would the M.D. even expect to have sampling data for hospitalizations and deaths..."
      Perhaps because the M.D. has an interest in the health of the patients over the health of the Pharma company the M.D. might design a test that determines the quantitative benefits (and detriments) to the people who take the vaccine.
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  • Posted by tdechaine 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    This sounds a bit overstated.
    If fewer cases, then fewer potential deaths; and coupled with better hospital care now than in the beginning and more antibodies in the body, the risk should be relatively low. In other words, the missing information referred to does not necessarily imply greater risk.

    The responses here show how such fear generated perhaps irrationally can lead to people not being willing to take the vaccine. By the time the average person can get the vaccine, we will of course know a lot more about it's safety.
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    • Posted by 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      I think some people are far too trusting and some are over cautious. However, imo, there is a bias by the vaccine makers toward producing a product without enough concern for the side effects because government has passed laws to protect the companies from any loss from any such effects.
      I recognize that as greatly increasing the risk to anyone taking the vaccine. I'll take my chances with the current treatments, not the vaccines.
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      • Posted by tdechaine 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        The vaccine Co.s will not risk a bad vaccine! They are not relieved from reclessness, lying about the results, etc. You'll know soon of its safety.

        If businesses - including the travel industry - was smart after the vaccine is available, they would require proof of a vaccine before allowing someone to do business/travel. Don't take it and you remain locked down.
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