COVID-19 - Suppression vs Mitigation - Life or Death

Posted by freedomforall 4 years ago to News
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"The coronavirus is still spreading nearly everywhere. 152 countries have cases. We are against the clock. But we don’t need to be: there’s a clear way we can be thinking about this.
Some countries, especially those that haven’t been hit heavily yet by the coronavirus, might be wondering: Is this going to happen to me? The answer is: It probably already has. You just haven’t noticed. When it really hits, your healthcare system will be in even worse shape than in wealthy countries where the healthcare systems are strong. Better safe than sorry, you should consider taking action now.
For the countries where the coronavirus is already here, the options are clear.
On one side, countries can go the mitigation route: create a massive epidemic, overwhelm the healthcare system, drive the death of millions of people, and release new mutations of this virus in the wild.
On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.
Governments around the world today, including some such as the US, the UK or Switzerland have so far chosen the mitigation path.
That means they’re giving up without a fight. They see other countries having successfully fought this, but they say: “We can’t do that!”
What if Churchill had said the same thing? “Nazis are already everywhere in Europe. We can’t fight them. Let’s just give up.” This is what many governments around the world are doing today. They’re not giving you a chance to fight this. You have to demand it."
SOURCE URL: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56


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  • Posted by $ number6 4 years ago
    from Fauci on 3.26 in the New England Journal of Medicine

    "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) ..."

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056...
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    • Posted by 4 years ago
      Perhaps I am misunderstanding the point but we have already seen the result in Italy and Spain of not taking serious action fast enough and NY is following that path, too. When hospitals are overwhelmed with serious cases it doesn't matter if there are a million less serious cases. When overwhelmed, the side effect is not enough facilities for the "normal" load of patients with other issues. Many of those patients become collateral damage and that death toll adds to the total even though they did not have COVID19. The current evidence is that the result is much a more serious effect on the available facilities than seasonal flu.
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      • Posted by exceller 4 years ago
        I have been running stats on global vs US cases since March 17th till today.

        - Global mortality rate increased from 3.84% to 4.7%;

        - USA mortality rate strayed relatively the same: 1.83% to 1.80%

        - CA mortality rate ticked up: from 1.82% to 2.13%.

        Question is if the US will follow the trend of world mortality cases to almost 5%.
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        • Posted by $ number6 4 years ago
          global is skewed because of Italy. Not just age and number of smokers but ANY dearh if a person has COVID-19, is deemed to be caused by it. Essentially if aperson is killed in a car wreck, and they are infected, the cause of death is the virus.

          Fauci, TODAY, said the number of deaths will be 100-200,000. In 2018 the flu killed 80,000. With thesread being at 3 to 1 versus the flu infection spread at 1.2 to 1. What that suggests is at the end of this, the mortality rate may be below .1%.

          Germany is at .3 currently
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          • Posted by exceller 4 years ago
            Global is skewed not only b/c of Italy but by China cases. By estimates, Chinese cases were at least 10 times of what was "reported" by the gov, and still rising, even though they claim no new cases.

            Fauci is basing his opinion on a "model".

            Everyone with even a cursory knowledge of how models "work" is aware the method's pitfall. Models use assumptions that may or may not be factual. Think of the Climate Change models, how good (bad) they were.
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    • Posted by $ blarman 4 years ago
      Yes. Many people are basing their figures off bad data. To date, the vast majority of actual deaths are in the elderly with preexisting conditions. That's true no matter which nation we look at. Italy has the highest percentage of elderly of any European nation and the country is awash with chain-smokers - the perfect preexisting condition to exacerbate COVID-19. The studies have already shown that many people are either asymptomatic (meaning that they never know they got it) or have either mild symptoms which don't require medical attention. The only cases which are getting even tested are those who go in for medical treatment, so using the testing information to extrapolate into generic application is poor science indeed - something Dr. Fauci has been pointing out from the beginning. I think that once the antibody test is developed and we start administering that to random people, we're going to find that the actual infection rate is MUCH higher than the current reported infection rate and therefore the actual mortality rate much lower.

      Douglas Adams had it right: Don't Panic!
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  • Posted by exceller 4 years ago
    What do you do with a governor like Cuomo, who thinks that implementing travel restrictions for New Yorkers who show up in Florida or Rhode Island is "unconstitutional"? Threatening the governors of those states with lawsuits for stopping NY cars?

    Who declined to buy ventilators, spending the money on illegals and driving Sanctuary City status with all his might.?

    And now going on air spewing his idiotic ideas, still resisting Trump, even though new cases of infections continue to rise in NY?
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  • Posted by Owlsrayne 4 years ago
    Here in the USA that the state governors make the decision based on the spread of the virus in their states. Everyone does have to follow the mandated federal guide guidelines. Here in Arizona it seems that Governor Ducey even though under heavy pressure from some in the medical field and Senator Sinema to shut down the state, being a businessman want to keep as many businesses opened and I'm guessing that he is waiting for the weather to get very warm to slow the virus. The warming trend is starting this week and will go well into the 80's next week. Maricopa county because of it's density has the most cases. Elevation of that area is about 1015 ft where I'm at is 4200 ft, there is a hypothesis that elevation and warmer temps are slowing the virus here. Also. the flow of tourist has nose dived which has helped.
    An aside, most of the hospitals here are having a problem with the supply of mask and gowns. Small apparel companies and private citizens are trying to fill in this gap.
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    • Posted by 4 years ago
      I loved visiting those higher elevations when I was living "down below" in '90-'91 and '99-'03. Eventually allergies to desert pollen forced me to leave.

      Local control may be the way that the right path is discovered. There are strings attached to any federal funds.
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  • Posted by $ prof611 4 years ago
    Why are we still talking about how to treat this virus? Last night hydroxycholorquine was authorized by the FDA to be prescribed to coronavirus patients, and it has been thoroughly tested in several clinics both here and in France.

    I recall reading somewhere ( can't find the reference right now ) that there was an ample supply of hydroxycholorquine available right now.

    So the problem is now solved. Let's move on!
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    • Posted by 4 years ago
      The article is primarily concerned with limiting the spread of the virus and overloading facilities, imo.
      Hydroxycholorquine is approved but, as I understand it, it doesn't work in every case. Not enough patient study yet to know how well it will work. I'm glad it has been approved, too.
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    • Posted by minesayn 4 years ago
      It isn't solved with hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) because there isn't the supplies of this medication. It has always had a shortage problem and for those who take it for rheumatoid arthritis and/or lupus, they will be without their medication if it is used routinely for Covid-19. Yes, the studies are showing that anecdotally it seems to help with the virus, but this virus will wipe out the supply quickly.
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      • Posted by $ prof611 4 years ago
        There seems to be plenty of Plaquenil available. From the article, https://yournews.com/2020/03/30/15363...

        HHS also noted that it had “accepted 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate donated by Sandoz, the Novartis generics and biosimilars division, and one million doses of chloroquine phosphate donated by Bayer Pharmaceuticals, for possible use in treating patients hospitalized with COVID-19 or for use in clinical trials.”
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    • Posted by JohnJMulhall 4 years ago
      The problem lies with the bureaucracy and the over-regulation. FEE (Foundation of Economic Education) has a discussion of who approves N95 masks for hospitals or construction industry (in some cases BOTH must approve), and the non-replentishment of them following H1N1, then refusing certification of -out-of-date masks, allowing bandanas instead...
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      • Posted by 4 years ago
        Read also that FDA did not approve KN95 masks in their recent exception on approved imports. KN95's are relatively abundant for import and are virtually the same as N95 spec masks also made in China.
        More federal government meddling and incompetence interfering with free market efforts to limit the spread of COVID19?
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  • Posted by exceller 4 years ago
    I mentioned earlier that I have been running stats daily on COVID-19 cases since March 16th.

    By the numbers, the rate of change has been decreasing for Global, US and CA cases (not deaths).

    Global decrease since March 25th: 16%

    USA decrease: 34%

    CA decrease: 34%
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