This historically accurate model predicts Trump wins in 2020 (complete study - pdf file)

Posted by freedomforall 1 month, 3 weeks ago to Politics
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“Under the current Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook, which does not forecast any recession, the 2020 election looks like Trump’s to lose,” the authors wrote. “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.”

Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 electoral votes.

The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where the president shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said.

The stock market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to digest a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.
SOURCE URL: https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/president-election-model.pdf


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  • Posted by  $  exceller 1 month, 3 weeks ago
    "Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, "

    They will do that, as a last resort, having everything else fail. They only need to add a few million illegal voters.

    I am sure they are fully aware of this as well.
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    • Posted by TheRealBill 1 month, 3 weeks ago
      If they are banking on record level turnout in all 50 states, they're in for a rude awakening. If you pay attention to the on-the-ground progressive left they pretty much are going to tank the Democrats in 2020. They want their version of Trump, and the DNC isn't going to give it to them.

      I've been reading and watching some of the far-lefties and there are some things to note:

      1. They actually agree w/Trump on several things (different reasons, but that is irrelevant)
      2. They hate DNC establishment candidates with a purple passion
      3. They want to burn down and replace the DNC
      4. If the choice is Trump or a DNC establishment nominee, they'll vote Trump or stay home
      5. Regarding 4: many of the Bernie supporters voted Trump
      6. They don't buy into Russiagate, or Ukraine (nobody goes off on how bad Biden+Ukraine/China is like far left Progressives)
      7. They do not want Trump impeached

      That last one may seem shocking, but these people want to beat him in the polls, bless their hearts. They also remember what impeachment did for Clinton and to the Republicans. One more: they would rather see Trump than any establishment DNC candidate.

      We all know what will happen. The DNC will ensure an establishment candidate gets the nomination. This group, based on polling, makes up around 5-8% of the party. Looking at the Moody's prediction/model, half of them staying home ensures they do not get maximum turnout. Even a quarter of them voting for Trump will ensure he stays in.

      To add fuel to the establishment candidate, the Democrats will continue to poke the impeachment sticker they have attached to their eyeballs. This will piss off their far left progressives even more, as it will piss off the moderates - who will be more likely to at least stay home, or vote Trump in spite or as a counter.

      I've a sneaking suspicion that we'll see a large victory for Trump in 2020, and probably the "popular vote" as well will go Trump. This is where the Dems will take their fight: amping up vote in solidly blue states like California and New York where they can increase the blue vote in the popular with no change in the electors. Yes, it is a dumb strategy. But it is their hail gaia pass.

      You see, if Trump gets the "popular vote" as well as a large victory in the electoral, they lose everything. They will not have that horse to beat, and will have once again lost states to the Orange Man.

      Just for fun, can anyone name any POTUSes that "lost the popular and won the electoral", ran for re-election and won, but didn't win the popular as well?

      And to save y'all some time: no.
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      • Posted by  $  exceller 1 month, 3 weeks ago
        Likely scenario.

        The Dems are stupid enough tp run the same scenario as in 2016, when the DNC pushed Clinton over Sanders. Not that Sanders would have won anyway. But the DNC is doing the same thing this year as well, pushing Biden.
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