jlc

Masks work. I have worn them intermittently in the hospital, either drawing blood from people who were contagious with 'stuff you really did not want to get' or when drawing blood from people who were very uncompromising and who would catch anything from you, were you not masked. Masks work. We have worn them in medical situations for a century, and they are effective. When you or a friend has surgery and it turns out well, one of the inanimate objects you should thank is the mask.

Jan

Actually, if a child dies of unknown causes up to 2 years after receiving a vaccination, the vaccination IS considered to be the default cause. There is not even any comparison to the death rate of similar age group in un-vaccinated populations. This has led to an inflation of the deaths attributed to vaccination.

Jan

My reply was a technical reply. I certainly do not have any problems with a man having a uterus implanted, but my point was that you do not need to have a uterus in order to carry a child to term. The blastocyst in the woman, who had had a hysterectomy, implanted on the outside of the colon (I think) and formed a placenta there. It had to be a c-section delivery in that case, because there was no uterus. So the simplest case of 'a man bearing a child' does not necessarily involve an implanted uterus.

I would assume that at least some individual trans-males would compete in male sports. The two women I can think of who I know who converted to being male definitely had an aversion to being macho and had no interest that I know of in sports.

When I talked with one of them, they said that they did not want to make all the mistakes that men did about being male. They liked the 'trans' part of being trans-male, not just the 'male' part.

Jan

But there is no reason a man has to even be permanently trans in order to do that. You might have to alter his hormones for the duration of the pregnancy, and the delivery would be by C-section, but there are reports of ectopic pregnancies where the blastocyst implanted itself on the peritoneal side of the gut (I think it was the colon) and formed a placenta. This occurred in about 2000 and it was a woman who had had a complete hysterectomy.

So you could theoretically have a man who had taken hormone shots for a year, deliver a baby, but otherwise be totally masculine.

Jan

This is the sort of question that we should consider. Our insights from this can inform how sports in general should work.

Another corner case is high altitude. Is it fair to hold competitions at high altitudes, where Andean and Himalayan athletes will have the advantage? Or hold them at lower altitudes, where they will not?

It all comes down to having a sport that is geared for one particular type of exertion, and having a genetic sub-population that is 'good at that'. Our concept of 'fair sports' is based on a village green, where people of the same genetic background are playing against each other.

Jan

It is possible to go down that path, but I would like to hear opinion on what to do if most/all of the contenders in a particular sport are black or even Kalinjin, as I think that might inform our perspective.

Is it fair for a white male to compete if he knows he can never win, but unfair for a woman to compete if she knows she can never win? Is it fair for a black woman or man to compete if there is a Kalinjin in the race and they know they will not win?

Jan

There are probably lots of places where women have an advantage; some of these are yet to be discovered. Some that come to mind is being a jockey, fighter pilot, or astronaut. These are all endeavors where women have been categorically eliminated - but note that only one is a sport. Bullfighting is another sport where women could do well - the difference between the strength of a woman and a man pales in comparison to the strength of a bull.

The most puzzling sports where women have traditionally failed to excel (or just been disqualified) are racecar drivers and pilots.

We are doing well, overall, at eliminating the artificial barriers, but it will probably take a few more generations before we throw off the liabilities of social conditioning and see what women can actually do physically.

Jan

What do you mean "women will never win"? Brigid Kosgei ran faster than 45,933 people. Presumably, at least some of those were men...

The winners of >70% of the marathons iin the world are generally from the Kalinjin tribe in Kenya. By your logic, there should then be a 'blacks only' marathon, or maybe even a Kalinjin-only marathon.

Jan

I agree with Thoritsu. I am a woman, and I have competed against men (sometimes very strong men) in martial arts for over 40 years. Yes,most men are stronger than most women, but some women are stronger than some men - and some men are stronger than most other men.

The sport I compete in is quasi-full-contact. You strike blows that are strong enough to dent 14 gauge stainless steel, but men who are stronger than that have to hold back and cannot use their full strength. There are also rules that keep a bigger person from simply punting his opponent out of the arena.

Skill counts. I can take many guys who are a lot stronger than I am. I do not have to worry about whether my opponent is trans or male or female - I just try to win the fight.

So no, not only does this not 'frost' me, but it is a step in the right direction. If you really want to separate out categories of competition, then do so by a non-gender-based category, such as is used in boxing, ie 'welterweight'; you could even include the strength differential on an individual basis and sort people into categories based on muscle density, which would automatically sort the Y-chromosome trans into higher competitive levels while their therapy was still taking effect, but into lower ones after they had fully transitioned.

The idea that 'all men are stronger than all women' is Victorian and inaccurate. We need to move away from that. It is also good psychologically for women to compete in sports against men, and win or lose depending on their individual skills and abilities.

Jan

Thank you for posting this. I have missed them (but then, I may just have missed some).

I sent the Volcano one on to some friends.

Jan

Thank you again. I sent 2 of these on to friends who needed cheering up.

Jan

A very similar article (a lot of the same wording) in the Washington Examiner cited further precautions being taken by the military:

"But that only partly accounts for the dramatic difference in outcomes, especially if you consider that the Pentagon’s comparative success did not require any major disruptions in worldwide operations.

“We've placed tough restrictions on our people — all to protect the force and all to preserve our mission readiness,” said Defense Secretary Mark Esper at a recent virtual town hall for DOD workers worldwide.

While many have questioned the efficacy of masks and have begun to consider social distancing guidelines excessive, the Pentagon has doubled down on safety measures that have proven demonstrably effective in slowing the spread of the virus.

Over the course of three weeks in March, as the threat of the COVID-19 became clear, Esper ordered that Pentagon workers maintain 6 feet of social distancing, allowed anyone who could to telecommute, issued a 60-day stop-movement order restricting travel, imposed self-isolation quarantines for anyone who had potentially been exposed to the virus or who was returning to the U.S., and mandated face coverings at all times for anyone who could not maintain social distancing while outside their homes.

“We've been very successful. Our numbers relative to the broader population, or relative to any other population, have been very good,” Esper said. “Tragic for those who have lost folks or who have been hospitalized, but those numbers are far, far lower because of the measures we've taken.”

The Pentagon has taken extraordinary steps to keep the U.S. missions worldwide on track while dealing with a virus-stricken aircraft carrier that was sidelined and pausing basic recruit training to adopt new safety protocols.

“There seems to be this narrative out there that we should just shut down the entire U.S. military and address the problem that way. That's not feasible,” Esper said at a White House coronavirus task force briefing April 1.

“The world is a big world. There's a lot of things out there that are not necessarily in the United States’s interests that happen every single day, from terrorists to Russia to China to Iran and North Korea and all kinds of other threats and challenges that are out there,” said Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, addressing the virtual town hall. “We have to operate within a COVID-19 environment.”

The sometimes onerous restrictions, especially a worldwide ban on travel, imposed real hardships on military families, many of whom have been frozen in place for months, unable to move to their next assignments or do simple things like sell their houses.

“It's all about protecting our force, our people,” said Esper. “I know for some, it may seem like we're being too cautious, and for other folks, it seems too risky.”

But Esper is warning that the new normal will be different, at least for a while, from the old normal — based on the lessons learned from the pandemic.

Late last month, Esper visited Parris Island to observe Marine Corps basic training under the new coronavirus guidelines.
“I noticed as they were going through the training, they were appropriately socially distanced when it made sense. And at all times, they wore face covering,” he said.

But what Esper found most interesting is that the measures designed to prevent the coronavirus's spread were also preventing the spread of other respiratory tract infections.

“They've seen sick call go down remarkably across the board, and they've seen a higher number of recruits available for training day in and day out,” he said. “So there is good coming out of this, lessons learned, I think, that will make us even more effective and better well into the future.”

Thank you again.

Jan

I do not believe in an afterlife, but if I imagine one, it has green fields and rolling hills with trees on them. May you be able to see your father, young and healthy again, in such a setting.

Jan

We are pretty sure that in New Zealand and Hawaii and the SE islands, the Polynesians were the first. Over in the Western areas of the Pacific, you get more layers as far back as Homo floriensis - who was pre H. sapiens. Homo floriensis is now thought to be a branch of H. erectus, but I am still excited by the thought that H. floriensis might be a separate branch that goes back to Australopithecus (because of the foot structure).

Jan

Not really. We consider the nene to be indigenous to Hawaii - but of course it came from 'somewhere else' because 400,000 years ago, Hawaii was just a bunch of molten rock. "Native" "Indigenous" and "Endemic" are all terms that refer to something that is local.

You do point out that these terms are used unevenly. We consider the Maori to be indigenous to New Zealand but not the Mongols to Eastern Europe - and yet they both have lived in those places for about the same amount of time:750 years.

Jan

Well...if we also consider that 'the very first people who set their feet on a place' to be indigenous, then much of Polynesia qualifies. But the current American Indian tribes do not, because we have at least two layers of predecessors identified.

Jan

(Possibly with the accent on "simple"!)

It is an interesting thread, Thoritsu.

Jan

In a classic free market exchange, I knap 12 arrowheads and exchange 6 of them to you for 6 arrow shafts, feathered and nocked. We both specialize at our skills, and we each get 6 complete arrows faster than we would working alone.

This system breaks down when I no longer know how to make the arrow shafts. At that point, even if you are crummy at knapping arrowheads (as long as you can still make them), if I am not able to make the shafts at all, I am now at your mercy.

We either have to trust each other or we have to have backup capabilities. China is not trustworthy (unlike Taiwan, who is) and the US is perilously close to 'not still being able to make arrow shafts'. That is where free market and national self interest both come into play.

Jan

Thank you again for posting these. Happy Monday.

Jan

But, but, but...this is not accurate.

We know that there are people who are immune to some viruses (ie HIV). We know that there are carriers of bacterial infections (ie Typhoid Mary) who are asymptomatic. And we can see that this virus is not 'just going away' because it is summer.

I am baffled.

Jan

Bush does not look pleased with his mask.

I just want to register that I object to the Sherwin-Williams picture not being in spectral order. What were they thinking?

Thanks again for some fun viewing this morning.

Jan

I thought I would share this nice graphic depiction of how behavior can mitigate the spread of a disease. I like the way the article explicitly states that this is an 'example disease' called "simulitis" (because we do not know enough about Covid-19 to accurately simulate it yet). Enjoy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphi...

There are two aspects to this question: sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity means that 'you correctly recognize all of the positive events'. Specificity means 'you do not falsely recognize any events that are not true'. There is also a matter of timing, since even the best test kit in the world cannot recognize something that is not present (yet).
The current kits seem to be very specific for SARS-CoV-2 virus, but they may not be as sensitive as we could hope for. Additionally, many viral diseases take a while to output the viral elements into the blood (they are present in the cells, but not in high numbers in the blood yet). It has turned out that if someone is negative 'now' and you test them again in a few days, they may be positive 'then'.

Jan

Thank you for the addition data on the R-naught. I have not had a chance to check recently. Ya know: I am working from home right now and am as busy as the proverbial cat in the rocking chair room. You'da thought that I would have time hanging heavy on my hands...

I think you are correct about the social changes too.

Jan