The Shape of Things to Come, by Robert Gore

Posted by straightlinelogic 8 years, 7 months ago to Economics
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Take another look at the natural gas chart. It’s been over seven years since the price topped out, and it is still only about 20 percent of what it was then. In the bad old days of something closer to dog-eat-dog free market capitalism, downturns were vicious, but they were comparatively short. Gluts in raw materials and crops, intermediate and finished goods, and employment were fixed by falling prices and wages, liquidation and bankruptcy, and newly cheap assets moving from the weak and indebted to the strong and solvent. The depression of 1920-1921 is the most recent example. It was brutal, but it was also over in less than two years (see The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself, James Grant, Simon and Schuster, 2014) as the government and the Federal Reserve sat on their hands. (The Fed actually raised rates!)

In today’s no-pain-allowed environment, it took seven years before two natural gas producers even went bankrupt. The chart illustrates the harm from the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates, now in their 80th month. They have been perpetual life support for terminally-ill companies for whom the machines should have been turned off long ago.

This is an excerpt. For the full article click the link above.
SOURCE URL: http://straightlinelogic.com/2015/08/28/the-shape-of-things-to-come-by-robert-gore-2/


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  • Posted by BradSnipes1 8 years, 7 months ago
    Our government is no longer representative of the people. Obama is intentionally destroying the United States economy. And he is weakening us militarily. And his actions will result in world War III.
    The way to survive the coming depression or war will be to move Off-Grid at a distance from heavily populated urban areas and to be self sufficient. See www.texanhomeenergy.com.
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    • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 7 months ago
      Obama is just the latest in a long line of looters, and he won't be the last if conservatiive voters continue to consent to the GOP con just as liberal/moderate voters consent to the Dem con. It's the same con, and the key to its success is consent.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 8 years, 7 months ago
    Well analyzed, SLL. The method I helped develop to convert biomass into fuels, energy, or preferably chemicals becomes profitable at around $6 per million BTU's. Back just before the start of your chart, it made sense (and cents). If President Zero hadn't favored solar over biomass (and of course, conventional fossil fuels), my business would have dried up a couple of years later due to the change in natural gas price anyway. At current natural gas prices, the Ellis Wyatts of the world will keep me out of that business, and I will work in what I do now.
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    • Posted by BradSnipes1 8 years, 7 months ago
      The recent fabrication of the theory of man-caused global warming is intended to facilitate a governmental take-over of the energy sectors of the world's economies. The science is fraudulent. I love to share technologies with you.
      If we allow Cap & Trade, governments will control all energy from the grid and we have lost the last vestiges of freedom.
      I have designed an Off-Grid Micro-Grid Solar Energy System that will economically provide all of the energy and water needs of Off-Grid Communities
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      • Posted by $ jbrenner 8 years, 7 months ago
        We may be in competition if we build Atlantis.;) I had a biomass-to-fuel, energy, and chemicals company that President Zero's emphasis on solar and against biomass prompted me to sell and shrug. The manmade global warming hoax is very well summarized in State of Fear by Michael Crichton.
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  • Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 7 months ago
    Nearly all of the world's top 10 and most of the top 30 oil and gas producers are national governments, #1 being Saudi Arabia, and they deliberately manipulate the prices of oil and gas to try to drive their private competitors out of business. They are a cartel that antitrust laws can't touch. Under those conditions I see no wrong in some of the private competitors finding ways to hang on, at least as long as they're not getting special government favors that other companies aren't getting.

    If we're going to let giant companies fail I'd just as soon it be the ones that have taken unfair government favors, such as Trump's casinos or the ten biggest banks.
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 7 months ago
    Fettered Capitalism always fails from it's purpose as does un-monitored capitalism or any other system. As for unfettered? We don't know. Short of a yard sale it's never occurred. I do recall the economy ruined along with my retirement plans to give a very few a soft golden parachute landing. They were UAW members being paid for mooching but not working.

    Along with others like me I'm still asking where's my car?
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  • Posted by Herb7734 8 years, 7 months ago
    How many ways are there to say that regulation never works? Even if the regulation is meant to help. (Which it truly never is -- wheels within wheels).
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years, 7 months ago
    You say you're in cash, which I imagine means mostly short-term low-yield bonds that return less than 1%. It feels like we're at 2% inflation, and the Fed's goal is to be >=3%. They certainly haeve the tools to make it happen. How do you feel safe with a strategy configured to lose you 2% a year? And suppose the Fed over-does it, and we see inflation like in the 70s. Nominal asset prices will rise and your cash will keep earning 1%. My next thought is the Fed will hit the brakes and raise short-term rates, and Congess will solve it with fiscal policy (borrowing more money), like in the 80s, but that will be harder to do this time around w/ the high debt/GDP ratio. All of this makes me want to hold businesses that are providing quality goods and services, even if I have to pay 22 times earnings, which is tantamount to saying earnings will double over the next four years or so.

    Things in my corner of the economy are going well. Vendors, customers, and I can raise prices reasonably but it's not an inflationary fire that people in fantasy-land describe. Whatever my wife and I don't invest in our own businesses, you say we should be putting under the metaphoric mattress in short-term Treasuries. A year ago we started looking into commercial RE. Its valuations are on the high side just like equities. You post every week in favor of the metaphoric mattress. It's feels safer putting it in intermediate-term bonds, which have been a volatile version of the "mattress" for the past year, i.e. the point when we started getting nervous about equities.

    It's just so counter-intuitive to "invest" in something controlled by the Fed that the Fed has set up to lose 2% (short-term Treasury yields minus inflation). That's speculation. Investment is giving it someone with a good a idea. Holding short-term Treasuries just feels like paralysis.

    Thanks again for the free economic advice you provide.
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    • Posted by term2 8 years, 7 months ago
      It sure seems to me that there is in fact real inflation in the things I seem to need of more like 10% a year. Just go out to eat. Sit down is nearly $20 a person unless you share plates. I remember chipotle was at $8 for lunch. Now it's nearly $12. I just don't see deflation happening
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      • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years, 7 months ago
        "things I seem to need of more like 10% a year"
        Shat about the things you sell? Have you been able to raise the price of whatever you sell by 10% a year without losing business?
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        • Posted by term2 8 years, 7 months ago
          If it weren't for China cloning us we could have raised our prices. We have been making less money tho. Our costs , except for wages which haven't gone up due to the influx of illegals, have all gone up
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          • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years, 7 months ago
            "Our costs , except for wages which haven't gone up due to the influx of illegals, have all igone up."
            This is an unfortunate situation where everything other people are selling is getting more on expensive but not the thing you're selling. Put another way, what you're selling is getting cheaper. That's a painful situation. You need to figure out how to provide the stuff people are paying more for. That's easy to say and very difficult to do. I admire people just taking that risk and trying and admire it even more when they find a way to be one of those people raising prices, adding more value.
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            • Posted by term2 8 years, 7 months ago
              We just released a different more advanced product at a higher price that offers increased functionality with less labor content. Took much development to design it but it should stave off the Chinese cloning for a year or so
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            • Posted by term2 8 years, 7 months ago
              We do it by more efficient design, sourcing things offshore when they are cheaper, hiring people wifi will work harder for less, and cutting back on entitled American labor. This only works for so long- then we have to raise prices and take the hit on volume, or we go out of business
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years, 7 months ago
    "its price graph will be the shape of things to come, not just for natural resources, but for manufacturing and equities."
    Would this apply even to the price of mfr'ed goods themselves and to services, or is just business valuation?

    If it applies to services, would it apply to services that have existed in a similar form since antiquity?

    I know I can't discuss monetary policy for long w/o going there, but the question is genuine and thinking of it that way is a crass reminder that the "economy" isn't black magic but rather hordes of human beings of their free will doing the sometimes-unplesant work to give each other what they want so they can get what they want.
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    • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 7 months ago
      Sometimes of their free will sometimes it's economic blackmail disguised as government policy. If you want free market capitalism start with a fifty percent cut in government employees then ban unions that do NOT represent the majority of the working class be they janitors or CEOs. A better desciption, an an old definition is Fascist Economics.
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