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  • 13
    Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 8 months ago
    Your gold, like your freedom, only has value if you can keep it.
    How wIll you react to a government confiscation of firearms, gold, silver, seeds?
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    • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
      He asked if it would help to have it, assuming you could have it. It only has economic value if someone is willing to accept it in exchange for what you want that he has. If the major economies of the world literally collapsed including the technology infrastructure, that would be very limited, beginning with the stage of primitive barter let alone acceptance of gold or any other currency. For many it would not be survivable with or without gold or any commodity worth trading.
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      • Posted by blackswan 8 years, 7 months ago
        Are you saying that, because there's an economic meltdown, that thousands of years of history using gold and silver would suddenly disappear? What would you accept for your property? If you had food, ammunition, water, etc., what would you be willing to swap for that?
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      • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 7 months ago
        Absolutely. Things that are of functional value could become currency if they are uniform quality and long shelf life, e.g., ammunition. Early in such a collapse, imo, government would try to collect (steal) things that might be used as security, e.g., gold , as was done by FDR.
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    • Posted by 8 years, 8 months ago
      I assume the military would be involved and there would be little I could do.
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      • Posted by Ibecame 8 years, 7 months ago
        At least according to the stories my Grandparents told me, men came to the door if they thought you had gold and gave you one chance to produce it. They "favored" neighbors that would turn you in. They went into their next door neighbors basement and tore all of the concrete out of it because he had patched several cracks in the floor, tore open walls and their yard. They didn't find any Gold, but it apparently made a good example for others to turn what little Gold they had.

        Don't misunderstand me, gold has frequently been a stable currency throughout history, but the most used currency and usually the most valuable has been Salt. It may be easy to obtain now, but if the worst happens it won't be that easy unless you happen to live near a salt deposit.
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  • 10
    Posted by Herb7734 8 years, 7 months ago
    The problem with gold or silver is that you'll need commodities to trade with. Gold and silver, diamonds and platinum, will be just stones and metal if there's nothing to buy. If there is a major economic apocalypse, where will producers get the funds to produce? Eventually, I suppose through barter economies will creak back into life and then the holder of rarities will be top dog. If they survive until then.
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  • Posted by GaryL 8 years, 7 months ago
    I think NO! It would all depend on the reaction of the folks around you in such a SHTF situation. If you have a 1 ounce gold piece it sure could buy a lot of bread, milk and groceries but what will your change be?
    My personal opinion is that under the worst case scenario it would be better to have guns and lots of ammo to barter with but who really knows what to expect. I shudder to even think about it because man will do some very nasty things to feed his family and keep them protected.
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    • Posted by DeanStriker 8 years, 7 months ago
      That's why we hold junk silver. Otherwise your "change" will be available only by exchanging for more bread, milk and groceries, or taking "credit" from the stores and hope they survive to fulfill the promises!
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    • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
      I remember someone saying once that Hurricane Katrina is a guide to what collapse looks like. The wealthy people were the ones with clean drinking water.
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      • Posted by $ Susanne 8 years, 7 months ago
        Or the people that had water filters. Unless you got it out of a bottle or a filter, you didn't know what you had. Even the water trucks (with allegedly potable water) were suspect as I remember - people were painting over the "non-potable" stencils on the tanks and hauling water in. Ugly scene.
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  • Posted by $ Abaco 8 years, 7 months ago
    Great question. In looking at our more recent history... When all hell broke loose under Pol Pot, gold played a role. It was hidden by some families (hidden from the government) and used to purchase food. It kept some people alive. Of course, if it was discovered that you had gold you lost your head. In a total collapse, small, spendable pieces of gold would probably be helpful - along with guns, ammo and fresh water.
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    • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
      Probably the guns and ammo would be used first.
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      • Posted by khalling 8 years, 7 months ago
        People can always trade stuff, but having a universally recognized asset gives you the most flexibility to trade with. what if I already have firearms and ammo? I'll still probably take the gold for something you want. Your goal is to be able to trade the most efficiently.
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        • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
          Good point. The degree of collapse is I guess the big issue.
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          • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 7 months ago
            THAT is the real question that you didn't specify in the original post. How much disaster and how did it occur? Did it destroy the infrastructure or just the con game financial system? If its the latter and there are no nuclear or bio attacks in "retaliation" then the trading system will be rebuilt after a period of 'difficulty' (including significant loss of life in the short term) and gold and silver will likely be valuable in the aftermath. If the infrastructure (power, water, communication, transportation) is in shambles and the survivors find themselves in the pre-electric age then other commodities will be of more value.
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            • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
              My thinking was more along the lines of an economic collapse. Crashing stock markets, failed currencies, bankrupt States and Countries...
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              • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
                With all of that happening on a global scale, which is much worse than the Great Depression, the economy would most likely literally cease to function. Gold is not an intrinsic value, guaranteed regardless of economic circumstances.
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  • Posted by Zenphamy 8 years, 7 months ago
    And silver, 100lbs of flour, same of rice, same of beans, 50lbs of salt, whole bunch of gunpowder, more lead, lots of white gas or kerosene, and a lot else of whatever I could find.
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  • Posted by term2 8 years, 7 months ago
    If the economies of the world collapsed due to fiscal crisis, the world as we know it would pretty much stop. Governments would issue new paper money and most people would accept it because they would be scared and unable to figure out how to trade any other way. Your savings would be wiped out, as they always are. Gold coins would be good to have, but not to easy to actually USE to buy the things you will need. Silver coins would be more practical, as they would be worth less per coin than gold, We arent going to be buying new cars or new houses during those periods. We will be buying food, utilities, and things like that for a while until the country recovers. We can forget internet, netflix, etc. The biggest issue will be personal security, with roving hoards of people trying to get anything they can, so you will want to hide your stashes in your personal panic room. A galt's gulch would be a great place to be, but if you cant do that- hiding in plain sight is the next best alternative as in ALONGSIDE NIGHT (check out amazon for kindle version if you are into electronic reading)
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  • Posted by salta 8 years, 7 months ago
    It depends on the nature of the "collapse".
    If you mean hyperinflation, then yes Gold will be good (if you can prevent it being confiscated, which will not be easy).
    If you mean a global disaster, with everyone desperately trying to survive, then no. In that case I would value a bag of rice more than any amount of shiny metal.
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  • Posted by $ Susanne 8 years, 7 months ago
    I can see the point of your question, tho... if, say, civilization collapsed to the point of a strictly barter society (say, a series of high intensity EMP events), where the price of getting your horse re-shoed was 2 chickens and a kilo of cheese - or similarly, there was a premium on Lead, Charcoal, Sulfur, and Saltpeter, then a wiser investment might be iron or lead (or sulfur and niter)...

    It depends how far society collapses as well. How many intercontinental sailing ships (wind-only power) are there, how many horses and wagons, who has the technological skill to keep them traveling? Heck, how many people can get a crew together to cut down 5-10 acres of --appropriate-- oakwood, redwood (or pine) and hickory (not all trees are good for shipwrighting or wheel building) and even have the skills - let alone real, usable working tools - to build something like a sailing ship - without the aid of ANY power tools?

    In the 1700's? Sure. In the 2100's? Probably not likely. And travel is the basis of trade currencies like silver and gold, and even then - it's an implied and agreed-upon value, not a value of necessity.

    Maybe the wise person would do well to stock up on coal. Four chickens, 3 loaves, and a kilo of cheese? That'll be a pound and a half of lead, 3 of iron, and a 1/4 sack of anthracite. You want to put it on your Lead Master Card today?
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    • Posted by wiggys 8 years, 7 months ago
      instead of coal get a wiggy's sleeping bag that way you will not need the coal for heat to sleep. i do quite a bit of business with the preparedness market.
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      • Posted by $ Susanne 8 years, 7 months ago
        Sleep??!! I'd rather use coal to heat up metal to melt and pour into molds, or shape and beat into useful implements! Much more fun than mere sleeping! :-)

        (Honestly, tho... I have heard some amazing things said about your bags - best quality for the price, etc. I may just have to change out my Korean War special!)
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    • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
      I have discussed this with a friend of mine who insists I need to have some physical gold. He then goes on to describe some end of world scenarios. I have to think gold would be useless if it was like he described.
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      • Posted by $ Susanne 8 years, 7 months ago
        Well, gold, like lead,is a soft, dense metal with a moderate melting point (tho not as low as lead), so, (as others here have mentioned) it could make some rather formidable (if expensive) projectiles!

        The problem I seem to be having is getting the gold fouling out of the barrel of my Hawkins rifle, tho... thing started missing rabbits last week, and now I can't hit the broad side of a hog. Darn!
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  • Posted by gcarl615 8 years, 7 months ago
    Ok, so you are the local market in your local Church's parking lot. You have wheat, rice, sugar, salt, pepper and bottled water available after the SHTF. Two people walk up and want to purchase some wheat and salt. One offers you a 10th OZ of gold and the other offers you some 7,62 x 39 ammo. Which is actually valuable to you? the gold may be a long term hedge, but the ammo can be used immediately to protect your commodities and you and your family. What is more important to you?
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  • Posted by $ jlc 8 years, 7 months ago
    Several people on this thread have already pointed out that the salient variable is: What kind of collapse?

    Unless an asteroid hits the Earth, catastrophe will take the form of slo-mo dominoes affecting some regions more than others. Very primitive areas will have life-as-usual; modern ranches and farms will have to watch their petrol supplies carefully; Los Angeles and NY will be SOL. Most of the US is 'somewhere in between'.

    Immediately after a collapse, you will still be able to use credit cards and checks for a few days...because 'that is how we do it'. (Buy a bicycle.) Then, cash will be accepted for a little while longer - and that may be as far as the catastrophe takes us. If the situation deteriorates further, then we will get to a place where gold will be valuable. (At that point, buy chickens and 50 gallon drums and a horse.) If things get even worse, then gold will loose value and the only things that will get you something valuable in trade are antibiotics and other pharmaceuticals, street drugs, livestock, and food/water.

    So, in some sorts of collapses we will be in a 'gold is valuable' phase for at least a while.

    Jan
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    • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
      A literal collapse of major economies into primitivism would most likely mean a collapse of the technological infrastructure, including the power grid that would take everything else with it, quickly leaving most people with nothing to buy or barter with anything. Under such conditions gold wouldn't be useful.
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      • Posted by $ jlc 8 years, 7 months ago
        I suspect that in the US, 'primitivism' would be circa 1900 technology, with medicine at about 1940.

        I think for any collapse, gold would be at least a 'pass through' phase - which would give you one last chance to buy survival stuff. No one knows, when a collapse starts 'at what point will it end'. If the collapse is local, then gold will still be worthwhile at the end of the collapse. If the collapse is universal, then gold will be a pass through phase and then we will go to barter for a while.

        Jan
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        • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
          Could be. But good luck trying to buy even a 1900 bicycle. A lot of simpler technology has already been displaced by advancements whose loss would not automatically return to a simpler level.
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          • Posted by $ jlc 8 years, 7 months ago
            No, I would buy a modern bicycle with the gold.

            The reason I think that primitivism will stop at about 1900/1940 is that information and capabilities are too well distributed to go below that point. I know a lot of people with forges who can do excellent blacksmithing, for instance, and refined metal is all around us.

            The reason I could buy a modern bicycle is darker: in any major collapse, it will be the large cities that suffer the greatest loss of life. There will be many modern bicycles waiting to be 'mined' and re-sold.

            Jan
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            • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
              I think there would be a shortage of used bicycles, even for those who didn't starve first. Also parts wear out. You would soon be riding on the rims with no brake pads and with broken gear cables. :-(
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              • Posted by $ jlc 8 years, 7 months ago
                This is one of the reasons I like the Gulch.

                I just did a bit of research and the Census Bureau says that 80% of the US pop of 320M is urban - but they include some really little towns (2,000 pop) as urban, so I do not think that figure is a good fit for catastrophe analysis. I looked up the megaregions of the US (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megareg...) and added them up and got 233M living in mega cities (which comes to 72%).

                I think - and I am making this up - that,in the advent of a infrastructure collapse that lasts longer than 3 weeks, people in rural areas will do OK but people in urban areas will experience about a 10% survival rate. That means that, just taking the megacities into account, the US population would drop to 110M. If you also assume that some - let me make up the figure "20%" - of the rural population will also not survive, then we are down to about 92.6 million people in the US.

                There are an estimated 100 million bicycles in the US. I assume that there are also a lot of spare parts - tires and gear cables. (And I doubt that everyone will be riding a bicycle - people in really rural areas may go straight to horse transportation.) So I think that bicycles will be a viable first step - and there will be enough for each household member to have their own.

                After that, bicycles will be scavenged to repair other bicycles and self-replicating transportation (horses) will become popular again.

                Jan, trying to be one of the 10%
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                • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
                  People in urban areas wouldn't need bicycles, or horses, they could walk. But it wouldn't make any difference because they would be starving without food.
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  • Posted by $ allosaur 8 years, 7 months ago
    When all that has value is clean water, food, warm clothing, shelter and weapons, gold will only have value as a metal easily melted down to make projectiles for firearms or nice round (original meaning) bullets for slings and slingshots.
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  • Posted by Eyecu2 8 years, 7 months ago
    This is why I feel it is better to invest in the precious metals Lead and Brass.
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    • Posted by $ Susanne 8 years, 7 months ago
      We're offering a deal - sign up for your Charcoal Visa™ Card today, and we'll see if you qualify for the Lead Card™, or even the highly-valued Copper Rewards Card™, where you get a free squirrel steak when you have ten 1/2 sacks in purchases. (Some restrictions apply, offer limited to the territories of the former United States).

      The Lead Card - "What do you have in YOUR saddlebags?"™
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      • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 7 months ago
        Good one, Susanne.
        Without the ability to create legal tender from nothing, the 'credit card' would not exist in any form. The consumer economy would have been tiny and the world would be a different place.
        I suspect organized religion might have more power and corporate ceos would not be rock stars. Even rock stars wouldn't be rock stars ;^)
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        • Posted by $ Susanne 8 years, 7 months ago
          Unless they had the Anthricite Card...

          (Roll ad..)

          P-38 can opener on a rusty ball chain - ₡ (Charcoal lumpia) 35.00
          Rusty and dented but intact can of Dinty Moore Chili from the 1970's - ₡1300.00
          Telling a mugger that he shouldn't stab you for your almost-edible chili because you used to be the lead singer for Led Zeppelin? Worthless.

          There are some things charcoal can't buy. For everything else, there's the Anthracite ServiCard.
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  • Posted by wiggys 8 years, 7 months ago
    If the economies of the world continue to slide into that black hole; i see oil is below $45.00 a barrel today and is expected to go into the $30.00's, that is a solid sign of deterioration. so now you have in your hands a few pounds of gold. what do you think it is worth at the moment, and will it not drop in price as well soon, yes of course. can you eat it or can you drink oil if you are in the oil selling business, the answer is obvious. so having gold ultimately is not of any value if the economies of the world collapse; is it? NO. What you might want to do is dig a root cellar and store as much food provisions as you can because the price of food IS increasing weekly.
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    • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
      We could be in the early stages now. China worries me and I'm not sure how bad things will get if they were to have a major crash.
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      • Posted by wiggys 8 years, 7 months ago
        "could be?" how about we are deep into the collapse.. as for china why worry since we are the cause since we ain't buying much these days. notice the domino effect started by the usa. china and all other countries are falling and it is happening faster than you think.
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        • Posted by 8 years, 7 months ago
          China over built as well. Seems like their government has played all it's cards to prevent a major pull back.
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          • Posted by wiggys 8 years, 7 months ago
            the chinese commies who run the country are smater than the socialists that run the usa. they referring to the chinese may very well be learning an economics lesson i.e. you can't spend for things such as housing if there are no people available to occupy the buildings and pay for them. so yes they have played all of their cards, but are now reassessing their situation and understanding that governments like businesses must spend less than they take in to survive. that is a lesson that has and will continue to fall on deaf ears or brainless people in wash.dc
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  • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 8 years, 8 months ago
    First, there will be no collapse of the global economy. Ups and downs will always continue, but the Apocalypse/Goetterdaemerung/Mayan Calendar is just a story, and a silly one. A nuclear exchange, a nuclear winter… a volcano like Krakatoa… unforeseen catastrophe… Perhaps, albeit of short duration. In that case, your local economy may be the extent of your range. No more grapes from Chile or Kiwi Fruit…

    Gold would be good, but silver would be better because you will need to carry out a large number of small transactions for some period, perhaps a year.

    But the economies of the world are not going to collapse.

    Even if you resorted to paying for local vegetables with silver coins, you might still well buy that Hermes purse with your Visa card… just saying'… because even during the actual and real Dark Ages, we know that Islamic coins were buried in Scandinavia and England. In fact, King Offa of Mercia (England) struck gold coins in imitation of Islamic coins, indicating the extent of trade and commerce, even in the worst of times.
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    • Posted by Bethesda-gal 8 years, 7 months ago
      I agree with you. Econ collapse unlikely. Perhaps more likely (?) to consider is what to do if long term power collapse occurs from an attack ? Soon no gas avail to put in cars, no credit card machines, (omg no,Starbucks!) ;) , no way to transport food from farms to stores, unless you have horse and buggy. Then most valuable to have is the bottom of Maslow's heirachy - food ( and seeds to grow more), water, clothing, shelter - and firepower to protect it all.
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    • Posted by $ blarman 8 years, 7 months ago
      I just got done reading a book that gives very concrete reasons why a collapse is not only inevitable but imminent. It's called "The Death of Money" by James Rickards. I cite some passages from the book in my review here:

      http://www.galtsgulchonline.com/posts...

      This is where an economist and insider tasked with detecting insider trading for national security purposes goes into detail about macroeconomic issues including the Fed, the IMF, the weak dollar vs strong dollar policies, China, the value of gold, and more.
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  • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 7 months ago in reply to this comment.
    And the second comment reinforced my understanding of the first.
    But you disagree. So be it.
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    • Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
      You just changed the subject again. I have no idea how the 2nd amendment is related to your understanding of the 1st amendment. If you are advocating armed revolution again, then "no".
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      • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 7 months ago
        No, I didn't. You are apparently unable to understand nuanced English language if any of it is in any way in disagreement with your perception. Have no idea what you are talking about, but I have no more time to waste with you. You are welcomed to the last word.
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        • -1
          Posted by ewv 8 years, 7 months ago
          You have previously endorsed revolution to bring down the system. It's not very "nuanced". You don't have to discuss it if you don't want to.
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  • Posted by Owlsrayne 8 years, 7 months ago
    After reading quite a number of survival books the main barter items would not be gold,silver, or gemstones. The tradeable products will be Booze, Food and Water. Ammo woulld be lower down on the list since not every survivalist or surviver will have the same ammo. Most of what I have is of smaller caliber. I don't own any large or hunting caliber weapons.
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 7 months ago
    Where would it come from in the quantities needed. It would be nice to have it on hand to back the float thus satisfying the credit portion of full faith and credit but the amount currently on hand in at least one country, ours, doesn't exist. Nor does the faith standard but the fear standards is doing quite well thank you. No one wants to hear the little boy shout the Emperor has no clothes. So everyone lives in fear especially those who are new to the ranks of living from pay check to pay check due to inflation and devaluation of buying power. By the way did your COLA adjustment include that decrease in personal wealth? Still on the slippery slope - no faith, no credit and not enough gold unless the price rises to ...what was it someone said, $15,000 an ounce. And that will still only buy350 loaves of bread. It's finger in the dike time. So the answer is No.
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  • Posted by LibertyBelle 8 years, 7 months ago
    I don't know, but it doesn't make much difference
    as to what I am going to do. Because I can't af-
    ford now to buy enough gold to amount to anything,
    if I'm going to pay the rent and utilities, and eat.
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  • Posted by sfdi1947 8 years, 7 months ago
    No! In a barter economy, at the Human Level, it will be something you have to someone else for something they have that you need. i.e. I am capable of hunting and trapping while my lawn is a mass of weeds, revealing my lack of agrarian skill.
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  • Posted by jyokela 8 years, 7 months ago
    Economy's dont collapse in the sence you are implying. Currencies collapse or things that help them thrive like exchanges collapse. But the trade of goods must go on. Gold is way to barter without fiat currency. You dont need some London exchange to set the price for the whole world... you just need to know what you would accept for so much gold and if you can make it mutually agreeable transaction for both parties
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  • Posted by dwlievert 8 years, 7 months ago
    I will answer your question in the following manner. Check your premises. While it will likely be useful to have gold, its value is derived from the economy in which it is used, and is, therefore, dependent on that economy for its value, NOT the reverse.

    Without an economy, however defined, it is useless.
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  • Posted by zeezabob 8 years, 7 months ago
    In all honesty, man is the one that put the value on gold and other precious metals. The person with the most was quite often in charge. So let's look at diamonds. If someone went into the mine in Russia and brought out a few cemi loads, it's value would go down because of an abundance making it no longer rare.

    I am a firm believer in the barter system. People helping people. Assets were traded, not credit. A mans worth was and should be his word, not determined by the size of his pocket book.

    I quit corporate America in 2012. I live within my means. If I can do it, so can the rest of the world.

    Ever hear the saying: "The cowards never started, the weak died along the way, only the strong survived."???

    Those actually living by Gulch standards and mentality should not be concerned with world economy and financial collapse. I may be a "mooch" on here, but I am a "free mind" in the real world.

    Join me. It's a beautiful place.
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