Pensions: too big to NOT fail

Posted by $ blarman 9 years, 4 months ago to Economics
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This is why retirement plans should NEVER be administered by government.

And the shocks to the economy to come out of this will be staggering. Mark my words, this could be the piece of straw that breaks the economy's back.
SOURCE URL: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-11/congress-says-it-has-to-cut-pensions-to-save-them?campaign_id=DN121114


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  • Posted by Herb7734 9 years, 4 months ago
    "Put your faith in the government. Everything else is dog-eat-dog and not to be trusted."
    "This can only fail if the government fails, and that will never happen."
    Those are just a couple of quotes that I've heard over the years. As long as the government is involved, we have nothing to worry about. It sounded unpatriotic to believe anything else. When I finally learned enough to know better, I was amazed at what a phoney bill of goods I was being sold, by people I thought I could trust who knew better, but had an agenda. Just one more definition of evil.
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  • Posted by Wifezilla 9 years, 4 months ago
    A Ponsi scheme is still a Ponsi scheme even if you call it Social Security or a Pension. If you are counting on a continuing stream of new people to pay out to the members, it will eventually collapse.
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    • Posted by $ jlc 9 years, 4 months ago
      In a population decline, it just does not work out. I remember when I was in my 20's...I barely had enough money to get by. I could not have shouldered the burden of paying for myself plus 'another person who was retired'. I did not believe in SS then; I do not believe in it now.

      Jan

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  • Posted by j_IR1776wg 9 years, 4 months ago
    And will Social Security be next?
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    • Posted by plusaf 9 years, 4 months ago
      Hate to sound like a broken record... oh, hell, I don't care... but for years I've been trying to point out that the 'problems' with SocSec have developed over the Entire Span of Time that it's existed, but pols and stupid voters ALWAYS are trying to figure out how to solve the inevitable problems during the next election cycle.

      Which is 'frutile,' as an old college bud used to put it... a combination of futile and fruitless.

      Any REAL plan to correct the deficiencies should and must be phased in over at least one entire working lifespan... 40 years or more.

      I've suggested converting to an Opt-In Or Opt-Out choice for everyone newly entering the workforce... a decision to own all of your retirement savings and manage them yourself, OR let the bumblement manage it for you, OR split the percentage between the two.

      With MAYBE the chance to modify those percentages a little through your work life.

      Hell, the SocSec numbers haven't been modified to follow life expectancy over it's own lifetime! What was it at the start? 63-64 years? Retirement at 65 meant a negligible payout period, easy to cover with taxes and contributions. Today, with life expectancies a decade or two longer, the contributory rates make no sense at all, but they've hardly, if ever, been changed to match.

      And everyone wants a Fix that Will Work in the next two to five years...

      Utter stupidity and unreality, but hell... So Popular... Makes me sick.

      But I've been very lucky in my life. Mom beat "self-reliance" and "stay out of debt" into me at a very early age, so I've saved every penny I could, with the assumption that SocSec would be the icing on the retirement cake, but I'd sure as hell try to maximize the cake _I_ was baking along the way.

      Today, SocSec accounts for maybe forty-something percent of our annual 'burn rate' of cash outlays, so if even if it collapses, our end-of-life won't be destitute, though a bunch of downsizing will probably be needed.

      People that think their financial needs in retirement will be a lot lower than before retiring are dreaming. Look at your fixed expenses and day-to-day living costs. You'll probably need around 80-90% of your net income At Retirement to live on After Retiring. Food, shelter, misc. insurance costs, rent or mortgage costs don't drop. Clothing? Did you spend all that much on ties and suits that you only wore to work? Those kinds of 'uniform costs' might be the only costs that disappear when you retire.

      Did your mom point that out to you? Do you think there's any truth in what I just said?

      Good luck, one way or the other!
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      • Posted by j_IR1776wg 9 years, 4 months ago
        +1 for you. "Any REAL plan to correct the deficiencies should and must be phased in over at least one entire working lifespan... 40 years or more. " I fully agree. The only sane way out of this Ponzt scheme is for America to walk our way out of it over the next 30-40 years. If you are 65 this year, you'd get 100% of promised benefits, If 60, 90%, 55, 85%, etc. At the same time start a massive education campaign to teach people on how to plan for and be responsible for their own futures. At the same time start chopping government agencies and programs, such as, Department of Education, Department of Energy, EPA, Obamacare, and the IRS for starters.
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        • Posted by plusaf 9 years, 4 months ago
          Exactly! Thank you!
          Now help me find a way to get that idea into more minds! As too many managers have told me in the past, "You're just not saying it right..."

          After a while, I just concluded that I was trying to transmit an FM signal to a bunch of AM receivers. And you know the output of an AM receiver when subjected to an FM signal, right?

          Silence.
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    • Posted by $ jdg 9 years, 4 months ago
      SS is a Ponzi scheme and therefore mathematically certain to fail. The only thing to be done is to stop making any new promises of SS payments to people under (say) 40 today, so they'll have time to do some saving while they can.

      But chances are it won't happen, and we'll have a whole generation, maybe two, that doesn't get to retire, ever.
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      • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 4 months ago
        It's not mathematically certain to fail, it's only probabilistically sure to fail at a high probability. There is a difference. If we could keep up the growth rate of those paying in, and reduce the rate of pay-outs, by reducing the qualification criteria, then it would be possible to maintain the system. Since this is very low probability of actually occurring, it is likely to fail. But it is not mathematically certain, since change is possible, just not likely.
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        • Posted by $ nickursis 9 years, 4 months ago
          Robbie, I disagree. The number of eligible workers has continued to fall, and the number of eligible recipients has continued to rise and they live longer. Since there is not 1 penny in real money left, and the SS started to try to collect on the IOUs last year and were not paid, the system must crash as soon as the amount coming is exceeded by the amount going out, which will be very soon if not now. At that point the fed would have to start paying it as apart of the budget annually and that won't happen because it will cut money to the special interests who don't care if grandma starves, unless it is part of their special agenda.
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          • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 4 months ago
            Like I said, if more paid in, and less was paid out, it would work. But that's not happening. Thus, yes, it will fail, but it didn't have to.
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            • Posted by edweaver 9 years, 4 months ago
              Personally I don't believe there is anything that is run by government that won't fail at some point. Governments don't have the forces working for them that are necessary for long term success. The single most important force being competition.
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              • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 4 months ago
                With the exception of the military - who's competition is external, not internal.
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                • Posted by edweaver 9 years, 4 months ago
                  I'll give you that one. The only thing is if it were privately run we would either do a better job for less or get twice as much for our money. So much waste that could be used in better ways. We only have to look at the VA scandel to see they can do better.
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                  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 4 months ago
                    Most of the waste that you cite is not created by the military itself, but via political concerns. Politicians that demand weapons systems that the military has said they don't want nor need but because the vendor is in a politicians district, they get forced to accept it anyway. As for the VA, that's totally outside the military, it is it's own bureaucracy. A travesty coming out of the Civil War.
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                    • Posted by edweaver 9 years, 4 months ago
                      While I agree that much of the waste is due to politicians I'd be willing to bet there is significant waste inside the military. It is the nature of the beast when anyone is spending money they don't own.
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            • Posted by $ nickursis 9 years, 4 months ago
              Right, but in this case it is not a probability. It is physically impossible, unless you think 5 million immigrants the Obamanation is allowing will all pay in willingly. Otherwise the numbers around today guarantee failure. They can only slow the time down if they took action, which they never will.Raising the age just gets them a couple of years more, which is nothing. SS=CA+Water.
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    • Posted by $ 9 years, 4 months ago
      SS is already bankrupt. The GAO has been saying it for three Presidents now, it's just that every time they reiterate it, the date moves up. It used to be 2040 during Clinton. During Bush it was 2030 - and that was before the debt skyrocketed and Obama began signing up people for SS Disability like it was going out of style. I'd frankly be surprised if the date wasn't 2016 by now.
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  • Posted by eddieh 9 years, 4 months ago
    I think that as long as the feds believe it's ok to cut pensions they should be reducing their own pensions for senators and house members current and retired. Maybe we can put the cash toward our defecit.
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    • Posted by $ 9 years, 4 months ago
      I think that the individual states should pay for their representation in Congress - aids and everything - instead of having it come out of Federal coffers. That would include the costs of their offices, supplies and most especially - pensions and retirement. If California wants to retire their senators on $1 million/year until they die - that's their prerogative, but don't make ME do it.
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  • Posted by Im_J-hnG-lt 9 years, 4 months ago
    Our saving grace is high productivity through hi-tech. The individual in our hi-tech environment hardly needs to lift a finger to sustain himself.
    There are no 'real' shortages. Disruptions are result of dysfunctional government or occasional natural disaster.
    A breakdown in socio-economic structure or hi-tech failure is the biggest threat to our future.
    It's the manipulation of the ignorant masses by the psycho-elite that bring chaos to an otherwise stable environment. Here in the U.S. it's a 2-Party Turf War. Both sickened with their self-delusion of importance. Both causing more harm than good, seeming to enjoy the pain inflicted on others.
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  • Posted by johnpe1 9 years, 4 months ago
    for decades, the dept of energy has been sneaking
    around, trying to find a way to get at the money set
    aside for manhattan project workers' pensions +
    benefits since ww2. . now, they are hitting the new
    Pantex and Y12 prime contractor with a mandate
    to reduce the costs of pensions and benefits, with
    the explicit claim that infrastructure must receive
    improved funding as a result.

    we in the worker group are griping and protesting,
    but they may get away with it. . these are fenced
    dollars intended only for workers, since the inception
    of the project. -- j

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  • Posted by gwynmarilyn 9 years, 4 months ago
    The banks are not going to lose they will Bail in your saving. Now the government will take over the pensions. So what do you plan on. Gold and sliver not in bank box but hidden in some safe, under your control. Buy food and water containers. You see what Detroit going threw.

    If you do not do this then you better have move to another country. Ayn Rand wrote what life would be like. All we can hope is there are the people she wrote about as well.
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  • Posted by JanelleFila 9 years, 4 months ago
    My dad and I were just talking about how "retirement" was the most genius thing the government ever designed. They tax us, take money out of our paychecks week after week with the "promise" that they'll give us that full amount 40 years in the future. And who is using that money for the last 40 years? Earning interest? Genius.
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  • Posted by wiggys 9 years, 4 months ago
    Isn't the stock market increasing in value off the charts and aren't these funds vested in the stock market? if so, their value is also increasing so why do they have to be cut? What should be cut is the welfare payments that are given to the congressmen.
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    • Posted by $ 9 years, 4 months ago
      Pension funds are a false advertisement. They are not quite to the level of detail of a Ponzi scheme, but make the same false promises of returns.

      The problem with pension funds is that they assume a static 8-10% return. They don't ever adjust themselves to the REAL returns of the market, and we haven't seen 8% returns in more than a decade. And most pension funds don't invest in stocks because they are too risky - they invest in AAA or AA Bonds (like municipal bonds), which are very low risk, but have a correspondingly low return.

      Nearly every government or union pension fund in the United States is under water in a big way. You can see a list of those so bad off they had to notify the Department of Labor here: (http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/criticalstatusno...). A watchdog site here (http://www.nilrr.org/nilrr-research/mult...) makes my eyes goggle.
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  • Posted by $ Abaco 9 years, 4 months ago
    Yes, until now it has been against the law to cut a defined-benifit retirement retirement program. The reasoning behind that initial law makes sense. Then, we recently had a ruling that municipalities can fund such retirement programs over paying off their bonds in the case of bankruptcy. Interesting developments.
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    • Posted by $ jdg 9 years, 4 months ago
      No, that "initial law", ERISA, backfired spectacularly. Its real effect was to eliminate every last defined-benefit pension in the country, mostly in favor of defined-contribution plans -- except those of public employees, whose greed knows no bounds.

      ERISA needs to be amended so that if government workers' pension funds aren't prepaid (either by the employees or taxpayers) then future taxpayers have no duty to add anything to them, regardless of any promises they've gotten written into law. The relationship between those workers and the employing entity is simply so close that the legal concept of "undue influence" applies.
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      • Posted by $ jlc 9 years, 4 months ago
        I have been paying into SS all of my working life. Someone else will get that money. It should be 'mine'. Sigh.

        Jan
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        • Posted by $ 9 years, 4 months ago
          It should be, you are right. Unfortunately, it has been stolen.

          The only retirement plans I support are individual plans managed and invested in by me and me alone.
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          • Posted by $ jlc 9 years, 4 months ago
            And, from what I have read, if these individual plans are labeled as 'retirement plans' and thus distinguishable from other investments, they may be more subject to seizure by the government. (That is what happened on Cypress...do not recall if it has happened elsewhere.) I was all in favor of 401K's...but now I am not so much...

            Jan
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            • Posted by $ 9 years, 4 months ago
              In a rational world, yes, we'd still own our assets. You point out the reality that rationality is only clinging by its fingernails in today's world. Sigh.

              And Cyprus was a frightening example of what could happen, I agree. I would like to think (especially given the shift in power after the last elections) that it wouldn't happen in the US, but Obama could always order it by executive fiat, and I doubt Boehner would object.
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        • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 4 months ago
          Actually, someone already got that money, and money that you will pay in for several years. You merely want there to be some poor sap still paying in when it's your turn to start drawing out. Your money is long gone.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 4 months ago
    The real tragedy is that many of these people in the trade unions were planning on something that they will never receive. With those promises, they never put away for themselves - you can call that foolish, but up to this point they had never (or rarely) defaulted.
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