Serious question
Posted by coaldigger 9 years, 5 months ago to Economics
Everywhere I look I find analyses on how screwed up the US and world economy is but little or no discussion of how to solve some of these problems, why?
The Atlas Shrugged solution is a nice, fictional means to rebuilding the world after a collapse but I can't see it happening in that way. I think the collapse will be slower, outliving the men of the mind by the natural ageing process or the looters killing them for sport. The force of government will be turned on them before the end in a "if we can't have the power, we will destroy everyone that might get it" rage.
Somehow there has to be a movement that can overtake the current trend and establish an order based on principles that are sustainable. I am encouraged by the efforts of The Ayn Rand Institute to educate young people and see that they are making inroads but very slowly. If the mainstream is not moved in a more positive direction I am concerned that time will run out. I am not like Gruber in believing that the stupid masses must be deceived to do the right thing but I don't think they have to take the time from their busy lives to become economic/political wonks. What they do need is to be presented with choices where if something is not working, they can say, "hell let's try this new idea". Unfortunately our political parties are two similar groups of statists that are mainly going the same direction. Unfortunately, most people with alternate approaches also adopt convoluted and unnecessary social positions that erodes their credibility. This gets them ridiculed and discourages the non-lunatics from entering the fray.
Where are the answers?
The Atlas Shrugged solution is a nice, fictional means to rebuilding the world after a collapse but I can't see it happening in that way. I think the collapse will be slower, outliving the men of the mind by the natural ageing process or the looters killing them for sport. The force of government will be turned on them before the end in a "if we can't have the power, we will destroy everyone that might get it" rage.
Somehow there has to be a movement that can overtake the current trend and establish an order based on principles that are sustainable. I am encouraged by the efforts of The Ayn Rand Institute to educate young people and see that they are making inroads but very slowly. If the mainstream is not moved in a more positive direction I am concerned that time will run out. I am not like Gruber in believing that the stupid masses must be deceived to do the right thing but I don't think they have to take the time from their busy lives to become economic/political wonks. What they do need is to be presented with choices where if something is not working, they can say, "hell let's try this new idea". Unfortunately our political parties are two similar groups of statists that are mainly going the same direction. Unfortunately, most people with alternate approaches also adopt convoluted and unnecessary social positions that erodes their credibility. This gets them ridiculed and discourages the non-lunatics from entering the fray.
Where are the answers?
1) The vast majority of humans are not rational thinkers, and therefore learn life's lessons the hard way -- by trial and error. On a national scale, this trend favors economic mayhem or collapse before enough idiots learn their lesson...
2) Most humans are stubbornly set in their ways and emotional ideas, because they don't want to consider they may be wrong about anything. On a national scale, this trend favors economic mayhem or collapse and usually requires a generational shift for any significant positive change. As extreme examples, consider Germans and Japanese of the WWII generation. For those 2 countries to change in a more positive direction, the WWII generation had to age into irrelevance or die off.
3) Absent a large scale disruption (war, economic collapse, etc...), most nations exhibit an oscillating political/economic dynamic. For awhile, the nation leans more left (more socialism). Then, a small but significant number of people in the middle change their minds and the pendulum swings back until it peaks somewhat right-of-center (more freedom). This oscillation appears to be undamped -- simply swinging back and forth and never slowing down toward an eventual constant state.
4) For those of us in the tiniest of political minorities (scattered free individuals), we have almost zero influence on the national political scene that usually seeks to abuse our individual freedoms (economic and otherwise). Aside from seeking the least political abuse of our freedoms that may exist in scattered small corners of the world's political landscape (going quasi-Galt), the only other thing we can do is try to influence the most pro-freedom people and/or political party to try to seek less abuse of our natural individual freedoms, while keeping our expectations very low...
You mentioned the good work of the ARI. If you read their tables of Essay Contest winners, you will see that many are in Catholic high schools. My point is that people find good ideas on their own. Even the best structured catechism will fail to subdue anyone who chooses their own path.
Conversely, presenting "people" with "good choices" will not be the panacea you want. People have those choices now and have had them for many years, maybe always. But certainly since _Atlas Shrugged_ was published in 1957, those ideas have gained very wide acceptance, even global visibility. But not everyone takes to them. Some people find them dissonant, even abhorrent. You cannot control that.
Like you, I wish the world were different. Myself, as much as I enjoy my computer, I wish that Silicon Valley had been Spaceport Pacifica instead, but government control of space exploration prevented that. So, we have no colonies in space. Some people do proselytize for space exploration, colonizing Mars, etc., That, too, is part of the mix. Some of them, many perhaps, expect private ventures to succeed, but many also look to influencing government policy. You never will convince them that they are wrong. (Well, maybe one or two on a good day...) People are not convinced by facts. They generally agree with the facts that support the opinions they already have. Put "why facts don't matter" in a search engine. (See "Why Evidence is Not Enough" archived on Mother Jones here: http://www.motherjones.com/files/kahan_p...) Perhaps it was Robert Heinlein who said that you cannot rationally argue someone out of a position that they were not rationally argued into.
Is there no one offering a pragmatic vision of how to right the ship without crashing on the rocks? Is there some reason that main stream proposals are destined to accelerate the demise? I feel that the only reason we are keeping our heads above water is that the dollar is the only currency used to purchase oil, the evil fossil fuel, the fuel that we can't pipe in from Canada, or drill for on public land. In a time when almost all countries of the world's balance sheets are loaded with assets which are debts of their professed enemies, I am confused about what we are doing.
As for the so-called "natural cycle of civilizations" it just ain't so. True enough, good times and bad times are known. Mostly, the oscillations have very different and multfaceted causes. The Roman Empire was not a sustainable business model. The glory of Rome came from looting Greek cities. Once they subdued the Mediterranean, they ran out of income … and as for the "business model" business people were not admired: conquerors were. So, successful businessmen turned their enterprises over to their freedmen and slaves in order to retire to a farm, like an aristocrat. But the Mayans? Hard to say what caused the warfare between cities. Slash and burn agriculture may have met it limits, but trade could have overcome that… The Aztecs? Well, the Spanish won by sheer force of arms, gunpowder and steel against stone and cotton, but it took 2-1/2 years….
The Golden Age of Athens was the Age of Pericles. He made it happen. Alexander spread the Greek military, but Greek culture proceeded it. The Hellenistic Era was better for philosophy. At least no one drank hemlock. Similarly, ripe as the Middle Ages were, the Renaissance was caused by the work of Petrarch and Dante who purposely sought out manuscripts in monasteries. Those monasteries did, indeed, keep learning alive. Even in 900 AD, the supposed Dark Ages, a "religious order" (ahem) of men and women built an astronomical observatory in Germany. The problem of Easter spurred astronomical observations and "the computas" or calculations of calendars. It actually was at the end of the Renaissance that Galileo ran into problems…
I could go on….
If you are worried about inflation, buy gold and silver coins. If you are worried about government controls, work in an uncontrolled sector. I highly recommend HOW I FOUND FREEDOM IN AN UNFREE WORLD by Harry Browne.
I do not think AS was advocating this. It was a warning of how bad things could get if we're not careful; it was not a prophesy.
I believe most people believe in objectivist ideas and don't know it. Frankly, many people present objectivism as a vehicle for acting like asses and blaming their problems on others. We do an awful job of promoting it.
My hope is that people keep going back from Democrat and Republican but never get satisfied or see a huge difference. Then some communicator comes along and promotes a more libertarian view of gov't. She/he only has to be big enough to raise the issues. Right now there's a bipartisan consensus that gov't will remain a huge chunk of GDP and we must accept roughly the modern level of gov't intrusiveness. My hope is that bipartisan lock isn't as strong as it seems.
OH MY GOD YES.
Sorry, but that definitely warranted its own little bit of enthusiasm.
I do not know when things will change, but I do know history repeats and humanity goes through periods of servility and sudden unforeseen eruptions of revolution. It took only a small percentage of people to bring about the American Revolution. One can encourage and hope for a peaceful revolution, but if one does not occur a violent one is inevitable, if history is any teacher.
Change is brought about by a growing faction of vocal objectors. let us hope it is peaceful, soon and brought about by the rational.
Respectfully,
O.A.